This is a historic post. For the first time ever, I am using the analysis of a friend. That friend is Steve. He emailed me the other day (that is how you know you’re officially old, your friends email you and say stuff like, “please see attached” or “be advised”) about this segment he heard on sport radio about… well, here, it’s in an email and I do know how to copy and paste:
Steve: I listened to the Ute Zone podcast this morning. They referenced this article that basically explains that if you don’t have a Blue Chip Ratio above 50%, you can’t win a natty. Blue Chip Ratio is how many 4 and 5 star recruits you have in a given year. So if you have 20 recruits, and 10 are 4 or 5 star players, then you have a 50% BCR. I wanted to see what Utah and BYU looked like, so I ran the numbers, and then compared them against USC Washington and included Alabama to make sure I was looking at the right numbers.
Naturally, Steve was intrigued and did he own analysis. Love it. I absolutely love it. He took a look at those schools mentioned above (along with Clemson at my demand) for the 2016 to 2019 season. He compared those classes to the end results of the following year. So, just like a good book, I am going to give you the ending first. Check out the data source here
Significant Takeaways
Being a national brand makes the biggest difference for recruiting classes
Winning a championship (National or Conference) makes the most outsized difference in the BCR for the following year
Winning games has a profound impact on the recruiting class
Look, nothing ground breaking, but it proves what your father told you a long time ago. The Yankees win cause everyone is staring at the pin-stripes. And it proves that in coaching the most important person to a program is the head coach. Check out the tables below that show an overview.
Team
BCR Score
Alabama
80%
USC
60%
Clemson
59%
Washington
52%
Utah
13%
BYU
5%
USC
Struggled to utilize their talent class every year. Watch for their brand to take serious nose dive if they cannot compete this year.
Just look at what happened to their 2018 class after winning the Pac-12 Championship
USC
Recruits
2016
2017
2018
2019
Total
5 star
2
2
4
–
8
4 star
12
12
13
7
44
3 star
7
9
1
18
35
2 star
–
–
–
–
–
1 star
–
–
–
–
–
Washington
The hiring of Chris Petersen cannot be overstated. Washington had a notable brand, but winning put the machine in motion.
With two Pac-12 championships to boot, the BCR rating sees a significant increase the following year – winning solves all.
The 2019 class brought a BCR above 50% for the first time.
Washington
Recruits
2016
2017
2018
2019
Total
5 star
–
–
–
–
–
4 star
7
9
10
15
41
3 star
10
9
10
9
38
2 star
–
–
–
–
–
1 star
–
–
–
–
–
BYU
Coaching change coincided with a decline in recruiting. Not causation as during same period Utah improved clout in P12 south.
Despite a 0% BCR in 2018, they ended season better than previous year.
Losing record in 2017 negatively affected avg. rating of recruiting class.
Despite narrative, Kalani has failed to recruit as well as Bronco on a composite rating every year since he took over.
BYU
Recruits
2016
2017
2018
2019
Total
5 star
–
–
–
–
–
4 star
2
2
–
1
5
3 star
17
12
17
17
63
2 star
5
9
8
2
24
1 star
–
–
–
–
–
Utah
Bad record in 2017 hurt 2018 recruiting class.
Trending upward, but still long way from having talent to compete for a ship.
The “clear talent gap” between Utah and BYU is more apparent when comparing Blue Chip recruits. In past 4 years, we have 140% more (7 more recruits) than BYU. HOWEVER, when looking at such small numbers, 7 recruits likely isn’t moving the needle for a single game. “Talent gap” shrinks when comparing bodies to bodies.
With USC in decline, Utah has potential to ‘steal’ more recruits this next year. Need to ensure a P12 south championship to continue trend. If USC wins south, likely it will hurt our recruiting and disproportionately help USCs recruiting.
Utah’s player development narrative is supported by this; consistently in the bottom half of P12 recruiting, but swing above our weight class almost every year.
